How to avoid creating disasters when making changes to systems of systems
We live and work in a world that is deeply interconnected. In our workplaces, systems of people, technology, supply chains, customers, and global markets are intricately linked.
When faced with a problem, it’s tempting to act quickly and fix the issue we see. But in complex systems, a simple solution in one area can cause unintended ripple effects, sometimes creating even bigger challenges elsewhere.
A lesson in the risks of isolated decision-making can be found in Yellowstone National Park. In 1886, the park faced a dire situation: decades of poaching and hunting had decimated the elk population. To address the crisis, the U.S. Cavalry was brought in to protect and restore the elk.
They acted decisively, banning hunting, deterring poachers, and implementing special feeding programs to help the elk thrive. Their efforts were successful—perhaps too successful. The elk population exploded, leading to overgrazing. Vegetation like young aspen trees was decimated, soil erosion worsened, and other species began to suffer.
One major consequence was the decline of the beaver population. Beavers, essential to the ecosystem, built dams that slowed spring floods and kept waters clean for trout to spawn. Without them, the park’s waterways suffered, triggering widespread ecological deterioration.
By the winter of 1919, the elk population had dropped by 60%, not because of poachers, but due to starvation and disease caused by the degraded environment. Yet, the rangers misunderstood the problem. They blamed the decline on predators like wolves, mountain lions, and coyotes, launching an aggressive campaign to eliminate them.
This decision backfired. With predators removed, the population of game animals swung wildly between booms and busts, further destabilising the park. By the mid-1900s, Yellowstone’s ecological balance was in disarray.
Decades later, wolves, coyotes, and mountain lions were reintroduced, and the balance began to return. It was only by understanding the park as a system of systems—with interconnected species and habitats—that the rangers could implement solutions that truly restored ecological harmony.
The lesson? Before tackling a problem, consider the wider system at play. Ask yourself: If we do this, what happens next?
Your actions might improve one part of a system while harming another. Thoughtful problem-solving requires seeing the bigger picture and anticipating potential consequences.
Strategies to avoid creating disasters when making changes to systems of systems:
Look at the whole system before a change – if you are improving part of a process or system, take the time to understand how it works as a system of systems and consider how one change might cause impacts on other systems. It’s good to run tests or parallel simulations in these situations.
Check for limited slack systems – a limited slack system is where there is limited time to intervene when a process goes from one stage to the next. Where you have these, build in redundancies like airplane engineers build in buffers and redundancies to avoid failure.